weekend Oct 7-8

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Real Salt Lake vs Houston Dynamo - Dynamo clinched a playoff spot last week in front of a 20k+ crowd on a stunning 86' bicycle kick by Brian Ching so a natural letdown expected here. They absolutely will not lie down because they want the #2 spot in the west which they own by just 2 points over Chivas USA with 2 games remaining. So a draw here maens they control own destiny for final match but gotta side with RSL. Houston lost here in August 3-1 and are just 1-2-4 in last 7 away games (including cup) and really struggling to score. RSL have been inconsistent but have pulled at least a point in 7 of last 10 games which must be their top stretch in their 2 year history. Scoring has not been a problem, especially at home but defense has been spotty. They are still on the outside looking in, 2 points behind Colorado who play home to RBNY, so 3 points is a must and anything less might eliminate them on Saturday night. Both teams are pretty healthy with the only significant missing player being Houston's Eddie Robinson who is suspended. I don't trust RSL enough to lay serious money but if not for their 0-1-5 start they'd be in the driver's seat and form-wise are a half-notch above Houston. RSL 4/10 @2.30 (mansion)

Dallas Hoops vs LA Galaxy - in one of the worst picks I've had, LA just dominated Chivas USA last week in a match that was not as close as the 3-0 score. LA were incredibly motivated and barely allowed Chivas possession, and you could really see how much the defending champs wanted to make the playoffs, something I thought they gave up on. They still have just tiny playoff hopes but with a home/home series with Dallas + the results of last week's games they at least have a shot currently 3 points back of Colorado with RSL in between. Dallas need a win in one of these matches vs LA to clinch home field throughout the MLS playoffs but what a disaster match they played in Columbus last week, losing 3-1 to the worst team in the league who knew at HT they had been eliminated from playoff consideration. They also lost keeper Sala for the next 3 weeks and Shaka Hislop was real shaky in goal. Dallas have been one of the worst teams in the league since the All-Star break, winning just 2 of their 11 games including being shut out 5 times. Those two wins were at home, however, and LA have lost 3 straight road games. Not sure if LA can repeat last week's performance but if they can the odds are way too high on them. no sense in messing with +1/2 goal because if LA do not win they will almost surely be eliminated. LA Galaxy 4/10 @4.80 (pointbet)
 

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Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew - a rare win for the Crew last week and, if history is any indication, they will lose in Chicago. Going back to June every win the Crew posts has been followed by a loss...1-0 home vs KC, 3-2 at DC, 1-0 at NE, and 2-1 vs Chicago. They're the only team who have been eliminated from the playoffs and they must now travel to Chicago to play the in-form team of MLS. Including the MLS Open Cup which they won, Chicago are 11-1-2 in last 14 games and 9-1-0 in last 10 at home. Chicago were badly outplayed at NY last week but having 7 days in between matches is something they've not seen in a month, so they should be back up in energy level. Very important game for Chicago as they lead NE by just 2 points for 2nd spot in the East and play away at DC next week. A win here coupled with a draw or loss for NE means Chicago has home field for the 1st round of playoffs against the Revs. I can't find a reason to expect Columbus to grab a point here. They've failed to score in 4 straight MLS road games and are winless in 8 away. The Fire play so many one goal games (last 6 league wins by exactly one goal) that I go for the low 1x2 odds and not the -3/4 handicap. Chicago Fire -1/2 goal 5/10 @1.65 (widely available ... just med because MLS is not the league I bet low odds on most of the time)
 

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France at 1.67 against Jockland looks valuegood to me. We can beat the Faroe Islands now, but we remain shitey shite. Still, the tickets are at least selling now.
 

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In Mexico, Toluca have sent a very young team to face Jaguares. Most bookies have adjusted to 1.7-1.75 but may still be some sleeping with evens. If so, Jaguares are worth a bet. Not at -143 though
 

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Remo vs Avai - Brazil B Saturday - 10 rounds left so Remo need to keep winning these home matches to avoid relegation and they are playing great at home recently, with another packed house expected tomorrow night. Avai played away to Santo Andre last round and were hit for 3 goals in the final 47' in the 3-1 loss and now must make the long trip to Belem to face an in-form Remo. Avai with some missing players as well, most importantly attacker Anderson Potty. Avai are a weak team in attack anyway, just 27 goals in 28 games with just 9 goals in 14 road games which is the worst in Brazil. Avai have lost 7 straight road games and are 0-1-8 in last 9. They are falling down the table since this is their 4th road game in 5 overall and hard to see them pulling a point here. Remo were missing both attackers vs Brasiliense (Beto and Otacílio) but they will be in the lineup tomorrow. Remo are 6-0-0 14/3 in last 6 home games including wins over top-5 teams Atl-MG, Sport, and America-RN. Again I am limited to just a $200 bet at Pinnacle, so Remo -3/4 2/10 @1.943 (pinn)
 

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Serbia vs Belgium - two very defensive teams so not many goals can be expected. Belgium's two qualifiers so far have been 1-0 vs Armenia and 0-0 vs Kazakhstan. They faced Serbia in world cup qualifying and matches ended 2-0 and 0-0. Serbia very tight in defense as always but not much quality up front. Their qualifiers have ended 1-1 in Poland and 1-0 vs Azerbaijan. Serbia/Belgium under 2.25 goals 4/10 @1.862 (pinn)
 

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weekend 2-3 -7.66
RSL 1-1 -4.00
LA G 1-2 -4.00
Chi 1-4 -5.00
Remo 2-0 +1.89
Serb 1-0 +3.45

60-44-3 +49.34
443.58 out -> 492.92 in (11.1%)
 

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